Stop Soul Searching - It was the Economy Stupid!
As the dust settles, media commentators and US Democrats reflect on how could they have got it so wrong. The tight election race, the opportunity to keep the United States together, to end the rhetoric of the right and bring down Fascism, Racism and the 21st century reincarnation of Hitler has ended in a huge rejection of the blue policies.
Four main pillars of American Policy are now are painted red - The White House, Senate, House of Representatives and the US Supreme Court.
Already there is accusation as to how this has happened. Blaming current President Joe Biden for stating he wanted to run to a disconnection between Vice President Kamala Harris (who has had four years to connect with the voters) and the voters.
Race and sexism has been promoted as ideas for result, and the claim that America is divide along established fault lines - however the data doesn’t reflect this knee-jerk and easy solution.
As exit pollsters collected data, the overwhelming issues discussed as a reason for voting are the same as always - Security and Individual Wealth.
I discussed in my previous piece - Irish Election Lessons from the US, how Donald Trumps first term made middle America feel more wealthy. Voters interviewed across news channels stated they felt they had more disposable income under the first Trump term than under Biden’s.
But how can this be. The data show rising wages, high employment and other economic factors all heading in a positive direction.
The reason can be best explained by a UK term - “The squeezed middle class”. This is a section of the population who earn too much to receive any government support, but not enough to have ride out a shock to their finances when issues arise. The are also struggling to adapt to the rise in cost of living costs, caused by the Ukraine War support and are also burden with supporting children in the home longer whilst providing free elder care to parents.
That is a sizeable chunk of voters. Disillusioned, they move their vote to promises that they hope will give them relieve.
The US Elections is not the end of the voting season. By the end of this week it is expected that the Irish Elections will be called and the Germany government is about to collapse.
In Ireland, the same issues are being felt as in the United States. The recent budget appears to suggest Social Welfare support and support for the elderly - Ireland’s mature parent sector appear to be offered no assistance.
It will be interesting to see which party capitalises on the 45-65 year old voter over the next 4 weeks.
