The Comedian fears President Trump the Performer

With the 2024 U.S. election result just hours away, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky knows his future could change on the decision of the American public. The ongoing Russian invasion has drawn global attention and substantial international support for Ukraine, especially from the United States. However, former President Donald Trump’s stance on the war and his views on U.S.-Ukraine relations raise legitimate concerns for Ukraine’s leadership and future stability.

Here are some of the key reasons why Zelensky may be particularly concerned about a potential Trump win:

1. Uncertain Continuation of Military Aid

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the United States has been one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters, providing billions of dollars in military, humanitarian, and economic aid. Much of this support came under the Biden administration, which consistently advocated for aiding Ukraine to preserve its sovereignty and counter Russian aggression.

Trump, however, has a different approach. He has been openly critical of prolonged U.S. involvement overseas, expressing skepticism about the levels of aid going to Ukraine. Throughout his previous presidency, Trump displayed a preference for reducing foreign aid and focusing resources on domestic issues, a stance he appears to maintain. He has suggested that the U.S. should focus on resolving the conflict through diplomatic means, even if that means pressuring Ukraine to make concessions. This stance creates uncertainty for Zelensky about whether the U.S. would continue providing Ukraine with the resources it needs to defend itself effectively.

2. Trump’s Relationship with Russia

Another key factor driving Zelensky’s concerns is Trump’s well-documented approach to U.S.-Russia relations. Trump has historically expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his approach to Russia during his presidency was marked by efforts to improve U.S.-Russia ties. Trump’s rhetoric on NATO has also raised concerns; he has been critical of NATO’s financial structure and skeptical about the U.S. commitment to defend all NATO allies.

While Trump’s foreign policy stance may be aimed at avoiding unnecessary conflict, it could inadvertently embolden Putin. A Trump administration might not view Russian aggression with the same urgency as previous administrations, potentially affecting the United States' willingness to stand firmly with Ukraine. For Zelensky, this could mean the loss of a powerful deterrent and a weakening of the international coalition that has helped Ukraine resist Russia.

3. Trump’s Possible Pressure for Negotiations

Trump has openly stated that he could "end the Ukraine war in 24 hours," implying a willingness to broker a settlement between Ukraine and Russia. This sentiment, while ambitious, may signal that Trump would pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia under terms that could be unfavorable to Kyiv.

On his recent appearance on the Joe Rogan Podcast, President Trump stated he would have stopped the invasion of Ukranie by threatening to "tank oil to $40 per barrel" to make the war economical impossible for Russia to wage.

Zelensky and the Ukrainian people have consistently opposed negotiations that would require them to cede territory to Russia, as it could validate Russian aggression and undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty. However, a Trump administration might pressure Ukraine into negotiations to secure a swift end to the conflict, potentially forcing Zelensky to consider terms that could compromise Ukrainian territory, security, and independence.

4. A Potential Shift in U.S. Domestic and Foreign Policy Priorities

A Trump victory could bring a shift in U.S. foreign policy that deprioritizes Ukraine and focuses more on America’s own interests, particularly as Trump has a strong “America First” philosophy. This might translate to a reduced willingness to prioritize Ukraine as a key geopolitical issue, leading to a downscaling of U.S. involvement.

This change would represent a marked shift from the Biden administration’s emphasis on maintaining strong international alliances and countering authoritarianism worldwide. For Zelensky, this would mean facing a drastically different U.S. approach to the Ukraine-Russia conflict—one where the survival of Ukraine as a sovereign state could no longer be a top priority for Washington.

5. Impact on NATO and European Support for Ukraine

The ripple effects of a Trump presidency could also influence European allies and NATO’s stance on Ukraine. European leaders may hesitate to fully commit to Ukraine without strong U.S. backing, potentially weakening the united front that has been crucial in resisting Russian aggression. Trump’s criticism of NATO and pressure on European allies to contribute more to their defense might strain NATO relations, reducing the effectiveness of the coalition that Ukraine relies on for military and logistical support.

Should Trump push for NATO reforms or even question U.S. involvement in the alliance, Zelensky would face a drastically altered strategic environment in which Ukraine might find itself without the robust multilateral support it currently enjoys.

6. Domestic U.S. Politics and Public Opinion

Lastly, U.S. domestic politics are a factor Zelensky cannot ignore. A Trump presidency could energize the isolationist wing of the Republican Party, many of whom question the wisdom of extensive foreign aid programs. Growing sentiment against military aid to Ukraine could pressure the U.S. Congress to limit or even halt assistance.

If American public opinion continues to shift towards a more isolationist stance, it may become politically challenging for future administrations, even after Trump, to reinstate the level of support Ukraine has been receiving. This long-term implication could weaken Ukraine’s defense capabilities and impact its chances of reclaiming occupied territories.

Conclusion

The prospect of a Trump presidency brings significant uncertainty to Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty. While Trump’s statements on ending the conflict may sound promising to those hoping for a swift conclusion, for Zelensky, these promises translate into potential risks. Reduced military aid, increased pressure for unfavorable negotiations, and a more passive stance on Russian aggression are serious concerns for Ukraine.

President Zelensky is likely watching the U.S. election with a great deal of apprehension. As he navigates the complex and volatile situation in Eastern Europe, having a steadfast ally like the U.S. is essential. A change in U.S. leadership that deprioritizes Ukraine or changes the dynamics of Western support could alter the course of the conflict and have long-lasting implications for both Ukraine and Europe as a whole.